The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons.
Outlook for the Swiss labour market still dampened
In line with the recent trend, the outlook for both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer was negative again in September 2024. When the outlooks for the two barometer components are averaged out, the barometer stood at 97.1 points in September – its lowest level to date.
“In September, the labour market experts at the RAVs predicted an increase in unemployment and a slight drop in employment over the next three months. To some extent at least, the Index likely reflects the anticipated seasonal slowdown of the labour market in the autumn. In terms of the sectors that are less influenced by seasonal patterns, the declines may be partly caused by the situation in the watchmaking industry with regard to unemployment and orders. For example, demand for timepieces in a number of markets, such as China and Hong Kong, has plummeted,” says Dr Dorit Griga, Senior Manager International Relations.
In September 2024, both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer were in negative territory. Labour market experts anticipate a deterioration, particularly in registered unemployment (seasonally adjusted), i.e. a slight increase (96.1 points). Meanwhile, their outlook for employment (seasonally adjusted) is also somewhat negative (98.1 points).
Methodology
The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons. The survey has been conducted since May 2021 by SECO in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Germany and the European Labour Market Barometer.
While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components ‘unemployment’ and ‘employment’ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development).
European Labour Market Barometer
The European Labour Market Barometer has been conducted since June 2018 together with the public employment offices in participating countries and the IAB. Currently, 18 countries take part in the survey. These include: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden and Belgium-Wallonia.
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