The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons.
Swiss Labour Market Barometer forecasts change of trend
The outlook for both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer was negative in June – following three months in positive territory earlier in the year. When averaged out, the outlooks for the two barometer components resulted in a figure of 99.1 points for June. “As in March and April, once again in May labour market experts from the RAVs expected unemployment to decline slightly and employment to stay the same or rise by a small margin,” says Oliver Schärli, head of the Labour market/unemployment insurance division at SECO.
“In June the labour market experts at the RAVs anticipated a slight increase in unemployment and a slight fall in employment for the next three months. To some extent the index therefore reflects the anticipated seasonal slowdown of the labour market in the autumn”, says Oliver Schärli, head of the Labour market/unemployment insurance division at SECO.
Both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer were in negative territory in June. For registered unemployment (seasonally adjusted) in particular, the labour market experts anticipate a deterioration, in other words a slight increase (98.8 points). Meanwhile, their outlook for employment (seasonally adjusted) is somewhat negative (99.4).
Methodology
The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons. The survey has been conducted since May 2021 by SECO in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Germany and the European Labour Market Barometer.
While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components ‘unemployment’ and ‘employment’ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development).
European Labour Market Barometer
The European Labour Market Barometer has been conducted since June 2018 together with the public employment offices in participating countries and the IAB. Currently, 18 countries take part in the survey. These include: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden and Belgium-Wallonia.
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