The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons.
Swiss Labour Market Barometer reaches a new all-time low
The outlook for both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer was negative again in November. After reaching its lowest level ever recorded in October (96.8), the barometer fell again in November, to an overall level of 96.7 points.
“Once again in November, the recorded values are subject to seasonal effects, meaning they may be skewed. What’s interesting, however, is the combination of a slightly improved outlook for registered unemployment compared with the previous month, alongside a worse outlook for employment. This pattern, which initially seems counterintuitive, can be attributed to the use of labour market policy instruments, such as short-time working compensation. More businesses submitted a pre-registration for the short-time working compensation scheme in November than the previous year. On top of that comes the ongoing news about the tense situation in the European car industry and mass redundancies at Swiss Steel, a supplier to the industry. From this perspective, the outlook according to the labour market experts at the RAVs is indeed pessimistic, but not implausible,” says Dr Dorit Griga, scientific officer at the International Relations division.
In November 2024, both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer continued to be in negative territory. In specific terms, the outlook for registered unemployment (seasonally adjusted) was slightly less negative than the previous month (96.2 points compared with 95.3 in October). Conversely, the outlook for employment (seasonally adjusted) deteriorated (97.1 points compared with 98.4 the previous month).
Methodology
The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons. The survey has been conducted since May 2021 by SECO in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Germany and the European Labour Market Barometer.
While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components ‘unemployment’ and ‘employment’ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development).
European Labour Market Barometer
The European Labour Market Barometer has been conducted since June 2018 together with the public employment offices in participating countries and the IAB. Currently, 18 countries take part in the survey. These include: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden and Belgium-Wallonia.
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