The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons.
A slightly dampened outlook for the Swiss labour market
In August 2024, the outlook for both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer was negative again. This comes after the barometer was in positive territory for just three months at the start of the year. When the outlooks for the two barometer components are averaged out, the barometer stands at 98.0 points for August.
"Compared with the actual development of the labour market situation, we can see that seasonally-adjusted employment increased in both the first and second quarters of 2024 – but not equally across sectors. While employment in the service sector fell slightly in the first quarter, employment in the industrial and commercial sector grew in both quarters. In total, the (seasonally-adjusted) workforce in companies in Q2 compared to the previous quarter rose by 0.1% (7,000 jobs).
Also with regard to the actual development of (seasonally adjusted) registered unemployment, we can see that contrary to predictions it has risen very significantly in recent months, from 2.2% in January to 2.5% in August.
As we can assume that the current outlook for the Swiss Labour Market Barometer is still subject to certain seasonal influences, it will be adjusted in the autumn", says Dr Dorit Griga, scientific officer at the International Relations division.
In August 2024, both components of the Swiss Labour Market Barometer were in negative territory. For (seasonally-adjusted) registered unemployment in particular, labour market experts expect a deterioration, i.e. a slight increase (97.2 points). At the same time, the outlook for employment (seasonally adjusted) is also slightly negative (98.0 points).
Methodology
The Swiss Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of labour market experts from selected employment centres in 22 cantons. The survey has been conducted since May 2021 by SECO in collaboration with the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Germany and the European Labour Market Barometer.
While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components ‘unemployment’ and ‘employment’ constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development).
European Labour Market Barometer
The European Labour Market Barometer has been conducted since June 2018 together with the public employment offices in participating countries and the IAB. Currently, 18 countries take part in the survey. These include: Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, Sweden and Belgium-Wallonia.
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